13 keys to the white house list

But once again, the standard is very precise. Based on the 1981 book 'Keys to the White House' by Allan Lichtman, we use 13 indicators to forecast the presidential race in 2020. He says at this moment, months before the election, the pivotal keys appear to be numbers 2 and 11. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which would require the current quarter (ending June 30th) to be negative. Here are the true-false statements, and whether or not they are true or false at this point.As of right now, 4 keys are hard falses, 6 are soft truths, and 3 are hard truths. Joe Biden certainly wouldn’t fill that criteria, and Elizabeth Warren probably wouldn’t either.

Trump’s campaign is clearly more oriented to his existing base of voters as opposed to “swing voters”. The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. One reason is the intense partisanship our country is going through. In fact, his system can be used to accurately predict the outcome of every election from 1860 to 2004. Lichtman is quick to point out that his method is based on a solid statistical model that incorporates a test of competing theories of politics, and the prediction results validate some of the theories and contradict others.

As someone whose read the transcript between Trump and Zelensky in its entirety, I’ll say that the impeachable offense the Democrats are going after is seen vaguely at best in the transcript itself. So, looking at it like this, the election is a pure Toss-Up.It’s easy to see how things go south if Trump is removed from office. However, this is probably to Trump’s advantage, as his goal going into 2020 is to just do what he did last time, and win the same kinds of voters and states. The GOP now has two keys, the Democrats have three.Now I expect this to probably be the key that attracts the most debate.
If an impeachment inquiry is launched into Trump and nothing is found, it would clear Trump’s name in the eyes of some swing voters, and his approval will increase, if only marginally. For those unaware, Lichtman, an American University professor, created a system that has predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 1980.

The 13 Keys To The White House. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote. Whether you liked the proposals or not, the fact remains they were major changes.

A quick summary: Lichtman’s keys are a series of true-or-false propositions, mainly about the party in power. The system has correctly predicted the winner in every election since 1984 and retrospectively fits all "modern" elections since 1860. Some people in Democratic circles have touted her persuasive ability, so she’d have a higher chance than Biden to clinch this key. People look at national events through the lens of their ideology as opposed to the lens of what’s better for the country. Examples of this would be President Eisenhower after WW2 or Ronald Reagan/John F. Kennedy.With all due respect to Senator McCain, he does not seem to have this level of heroism or charisma, so the Democrats gain an eighth key. Lichtman's prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the "Keys to the White House," which have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House …

Revisiting The 13 Keys To The White House I think it’s time to re-visit the fundamentals of the presidential race, and break out Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House once again. It made Clinton more popular, but Nixon was forced to resign. We haven’t looked at this system since this website was launched this January, and a lot has changed since then.

What’s more likely is that he is impeached by the House, or at least an impeachment inquiry is launched into him, and acquitted by the Senate. What really matters is the voter’s perception of what actually went down, and whether or not a majority of voters think there are grounds for impeachment.Once this all blows over, if we’re still on President 45, watch the polls. Last time, he didn’t win the popular vote.The main question on people’s minds right now is will impeachment help or hurt Trump and Republicans.
The highest plurality of the popular vote, not the electoral vote tha… If above 45% want impeachment in a few months, Trump should be nervous.

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